[The People's Choice 2017] Honam Chose a Definite Change of Government: Turning Back from "Vetoing Moon"

[경향신문] On March 27, Moon Jae-in won a landslide victory in the Honam region, the first stop in the Minjoo Party of Korea's primaries for the presidential election and also the site of the biggest match. Thus Moon's argument that he is "the trend" is now expected to gain momentum. It is also likely for Moon to be confirmed as the party's presidential candidate without having to undergo a second vote when the party announces the results of the first primary on April 3.

Candidates in the Minjoo Party of Korea\'s primaries for the presidential election raise their hands and greet the voters after the Honam primary ends, launching the party’s nationwide tour, at Kwangju Women\'s University on March 27. From left are Choi Seong, a candidate; party leader Choo Mi-ae; and candidates Moon Jae-in, Lee Jae-myung, Ahn Hee-jung. Gwangju | Kim Gi-nam

According to the results of the votes in the Honam region this day, Moon received 142,343 (60.2%) votes among the total number of valid votes (236,358), placing far ahead of Ahn Hee-jung (20.0%) and Lee Jae-myung (19.4%).

Support for Moon in the latest primary greatly surpassed the 44.3% (48.5% in the Gwangju, Jeollanam-do region, 37.5% in the Jeollabuk-do region) he received in this region in the 2012 presidential primaries.

The Honam votes are more of a "tool" that will help the party realize a change of government rather than the support of the individual Moon alone, so the latest result is more of a strategic choice. The voters chose a "sure change of government" (Moon Jae-in) instead of focusing on "what kind of new government" (Ahn Hee-jung, Lee Jae-myung) they wanted, and they opted to eradicate existing evils (Moon) instead of a grand coalition and unity (Ahn Hee-jung). The voters concentrated their support by sending more than 60% of the votes his way, adding power to Moon, the leader of the majority party seeking a new change of government and reforms. Recently, his remarks on an award received from Chun Doo-hwan and words of a "president from Busan" had stirred controversy, but they did not affect the "main trend." It appears Moon has managed to successfully break away from the public opinion in the Honam region, which had once sought to "veto" Moon after his defeat in the last presidential election.

Another factor that contributed to Moon's victory was the active participation of his supporters in the Minjoo Party. The percentage of votes that Moon received is close to his approval ratings within the Minjoo Party. The latest results confirmed the general view that when it comes to party primaries, the traditional supporters (opposition supporters) are more important than the new comers (conservatives and moderates).

Ahn, who had been pursuing Moon with support from the conservatives and moderates, received fewer votes than expected, which again supported the general view. Ahn Cheol-soo's landslide victory in the Honam primary of the People's Party is also cited as a factor that brought Moon's supporters closer together.

Ahn Hee-jung and Lee Jae-myung had sought to block Moon from receiving the majority of the votes in the first primary and send a crack through Moon's claims of being "the trend." They aimed for an upset in the second vote, which would be a competition between the top two candidates. But now, a red light has come up.

Initially, Ahn and Lee had set their goal at blocking Moon from receiving the majority of the votes in the Honam region, because it would be likely for Moon to be determined as the party's presidential candidate in the first primary, without having to go to a second vote, if Moon succeeded in gaining the majority of the votes in Honam.

Honam voters account for 12.8% of the national electoral college. However, in the past, the Honam voters have acted as the barometer for the entire opposition voters in the Minjoo Party primaries. Since 2002, all presidential candidates of the Minjoo Party have won the Honam primaries.

The results of the Honam primaries had a big impact on the voters in other areas, and particularly in the case of the Seoul metropolitan area, which has the most number of voters, the tendency to agree with the Honam region is distinct.

Whether the Minjoo Party primaries end in the first round or go to a second vote will probably be determined by the results of the Chungcheong primaries on March 29. The Chungcheong region is Ahn Hee-jung's region. If Ahn wins a landslide victory in the Chungcheong region and shakes up the primaries again, he may seek a chance at an upset with the matches in Yeongnam and the Seoul metropolitan area.

However, if he trails behind Moon in Chungcheong-do as well, there is likely to be no more chances of an upset. Chungcheong-do voters account for 6.4% of the national electoral college.